Synced from resonance-engine-active - July 16 2026

predict_stdout.txt

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+Capturing 500 frames from tcp://localhost:5561 (read-only)...
+  100/500  cycle=87580
+  200/500  cycle=88580
+  300/500  cycle=89580
+  400/500  cycle=90580
+  500/500  cycle=91580
+Captured 500 frames in 71.9s (7.0 fps)
+cycle step: median=10 (expect ~10), min=10, max=10
+================================================================
+PASSIVE PREDICT-TEST — live 5561 coarse field
+================================================================
+frames used: 500  (cycles 86590 -> 91580, ~4990 cycles)
+channels: ['rho', 'ux', 'uy', 'sxx', 'syy', 'sxy']
+
+Per-step RMSE (z-scored field, lower = better predictor):
+  PERSISTENCE (next=current):        0.3738   <- baseline to beat
+  LINEAR (const-velocity extrap):    0.2945
+  RUNNING MEAN (dumb global):        1.0054
+
+PRE-COMMITTED TEST: does LINEAR reliably beat PERSISTENCE?
+  improvement: +21.22%  (need > +2.00%)
+  bootstrap 95% CI of (persist_err - linear_err): [+0.0757, +0.0828]  (need lo > 0)
+  VERDICT: LINEAR BEATS PERSISTENCE — field carries short-horizon dynamics
+
+READ: The field's next state is better predicted by its trajectory than by
+assuming it stays still. That means the live fast field carries structured
+short-horizon motion the 9 global scalars could not show. This is the FIRST
+positive signal that the live organism has learnable dynamics. It is NOT yet
+memory (that needs the poke/history test). It IS a green light to proceed.
+
+Wrote predict_report.txt and predict_capture.npz
+DONE.