auto: hourly snapshot 2026-06-07 12:34
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Scruff AI
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"""_composite_band.py
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Composite rank-average vol-timing signal, with band-geometry analysis.
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Construction (per-window, no leakage):
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- For each variable in VOL_VARS, compute rank within the current sample
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(0..1 normalised rank).
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- Composite = mean of per-variable ranks. Re-rank into 10 deciles.
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Per-window means: when called on March data, ranks are computed within March.
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When called on April data, ranks are computed within April. There is no
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cross-window leakage.
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Report:
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1. Full 10-decile ladder: n, composite_rank_mean, |ret|_mean, |ret|_median,
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signed_ret_mean — for both March (IS) and April (OOS).
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2. Inflection: per-decile delta vs the global mean — where does the ladder
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pull away from the middle?
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3. Stability: per-decile |ret| comparison March vs April.
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"""
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from __future__ import annotations
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import glob, sys
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from pathlib import Path
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import numpy as np
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import pandas as pd
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DATA_ROOT = "/mnt/d/PaperTrader/research/hl_data/minutes"
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VOL_VARS = ["trade_count", "wallet_entropy", "taker_buy_usd", "taker_sell_usd"]
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HORIZONS = [15, 60, 120]
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N_DEC = 10
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def load_btc(glob_pattern: str) -> pd.DataFrame:
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dfs = []
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for d in sorted(glob.glob(glob_pattern)):
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for f in sorted(glob.glob(f"{d}/*.parquet")):
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try:
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df = pd.read_parquet(f)
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except Exception:
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continue
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if "coin" in df.columns:
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df = df[df["coin"] == "BTC"]
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if len(df):
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dfs.append(df)
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df = pd.concat(dfs, ignore_index=True)
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return df.sort_values("minute").drop_duplicates("minute").reset_index(drop=True)
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def add_forward_returns(df: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
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p = df["mid_price"].astype(float).values
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for h in HORIZONS:
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future = pd.Series(p).shift(-h).values
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fwd = (future - p) / p
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df[f"fwd_{h}"] = fwd
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df[f"abs_fwd_{h}"] = np.abs(fwd)
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return df
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def build_composite(df: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.Series:
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"""Composite = mean of normalised ranks of VOL_VARS, computed within
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this sample only. Returns a Series aligned to df.index."""
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rank_cols = []
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for v in VOL_VARS:
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s = df[v].astype(float)
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# rank with pct=True gives 0..1; method='average' handles ties cleanly
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r = s.rank(method="average", pct=True, na_option="keep")
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rank_cols.append(r)
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composite = pd.concat(rank_cols, axis=1).mean(axis=1)
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return composite
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def decile_ladder(df: pd.DataFrame, composite: pd.Series, h: int) -> pd.DataFrame:
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y_abs = df[f"abs_fwd_{h}"]
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y_sgn = df[f"fwd_{h}"]
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mask = composite.notna() & y_abs.notna() & np.isfinite(composite) & np.isfinite(y_abs)
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sub = pd.DataFrame({
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"comp": composite[mask].values,
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"abs": y_abs[mask].values,
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"sgn": y_sgn[mask].values,
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})
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sub["dec"] = pd.qcut(sub["comp"].rank(method="first"), N_DEC, labels=False)
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g = sub.groupby("dec").agg(
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n=("comp", "size"),
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comp_mean=("comp", "mean"),
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abs_mean=("abs", "mean"),
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abs_med=("abs", "median"),
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sgn_mean=("sgn", "mean"),
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)
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g["abs_mean_bps"] = g["abs_mean"] * 10000
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g["abs_med_bps"] = g["abs_med"] * 10000
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g["sgn_mean_bps"] = g["sgn_mean"] * 10000
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return g
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def inflection_analysis(g: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
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"""Per-decile |ret| vs the global mean. Identifies where the ladder
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pulls away (positive or negative) from the middle."""
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global_mean = g["abs_mean_bps"].mean()
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g = g.copy()
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g["delta_vs_global_bps"] = g["abs_mean_bps"] - global_mean
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g["pct_vs_global"] = (g["abs_mean_bps"] / global_mean - 1) * 100
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# detect knee: largest decile-to-decile jump in |ret|
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diffs = g["abs_mean_bps"].diff()
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g["jump_from_prev_bps"] = diffs
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return g
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def main():
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pd.set_option("display.width", 220)
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pd.set_option("display.max_rows", None)
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pd.set_option("display.float_format", "{:+.3f}".format)
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march = add_forward_returns(load_btc(f"{DATA_ROOT}/202603*"))
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april = add_forward_returns(load_btc(f"{DATA_ROOT}/202604*"))
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print(f"loaded March={len(march)} April={len(april)} BTC minutes")
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comp_m = build_composite(march)
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comp_a = build_composite(april)
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for h in HORIZONS:
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print("\n" + "="*92)
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print(f"COMPOSITE BAND LADDER h={h}min (vars={VOL_VARS}, rank-avg, in-window only)")
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print("="*92)
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gm = inflection_analysis(decile_ladder(march, comp_m, h))
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ga = inflection_analysis(decile_ladder(april, comp_a, h))
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print(f"\n--- MARCH (IS) ---")
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print(gm[["n", "comp_mean", "abs_mean_bps", "abs_med_bps", "sgn_mean_bps",
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"delta_vs_global_bps", "pct_vs_global", "jump_from_prev_bps"]].to_string())
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print(f"\n--- APRIL (OOS) ---")
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print(ga[["n", "comp_mean", "abs_mean_bps", "abs_med_bps", "sgn_mean_bps",
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"delta_vs_global_bps", "pct_vs_global", "jump_from_prev_bps"]].to_string())
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# Side-by-side stability check
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comp = pd.DataFrame({
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"march_|ret|_bps": gm["abs_mean_bps"],
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"april_|ret|_bps": ga["abs_mean_bps"],
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"march_pct_vs_global": gm["pct_vs_global"],
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"april_pct_vs_global": ga["pct_vs_global"],
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})
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comp["bps_diff_AvsM"] = comp["april_|ret|_bps"] - comp["march_|ret|_bps"]
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comp["pct_shape_diff"] = comp["april_pct_vs_global"] - comp["march_pct_vs_global"]
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print(f"\n--- STABILITY (per-decile shape: March vs April) ---")
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print(comp.to_string())
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# rank correlation between months on the per-decile |ret| ordering
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rho = gm["abs_mean_bps"].rank().corr(ga["abs_mean_bps"].rank(), method="spearman")
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print(f"\nSpearman rank correlation of decile |ret| (March vs April): {rho:+.4f}")
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# ratio metrics
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top_m, bot_m = gm["abs_mean_bps"].iloc[-1], gm["abs_mean_bps"].iloc[0]
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top_a, bot_a = ga["abs_mean_bps"].iloc[-1], ga["abs_mean_bps"].iloc[0]
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print(f"top/bot ratio March={top_m/bot_m:.2f}x April={top_a/bot_a:.2f}x")
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# vs best single-variable benchmark (trade_count)
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# for reference: trade_count March top/bot @ h=60 was 2.27x, April 2.42x
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if h == 60:
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print(f"\nBenchmark to beat (trade_count alone @ h=60): March 2.27x April 2.42x")
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comp_m_ratio = top_m / bot_m
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comp_a_ratio = top_a / bot_a
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verdict_m = "BEATS" if comp_m_ratio > 2.27 else "does not beat"
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verdict_a = "BEATS" if comp_a_ratio > 2.42 else "does not beat"
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print(f"Composite vs trade_count: March {comp_m_ratio:.2f}x ({verdict_m}) "
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f"April {comp_a_ratio:.2f}x ({verdict_a})")
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if __name__ == "__main__":
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main()
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